Pretoria:National Treasury has announced that Statistics South Africa's (Stats SA) 2026 rebasing and benchmarking of gross domestic product (GDP) data has led to a 5.1% (R393 billion) increase in the measured level of nominal GDP.

According to South African Government News Agency, the National Treasury updated key fiscal ratios following the GDP revision announced by Stats SA on October 29, 2026. The adjustments reflect a mechanical change based on the revised GDP data from Stats SA.

The updated figures show that the debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 74.6% in the 2025/26 fiscal year, down from the previously estimated 78.4% in the 2026 Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS). It is projected to fall below 70% by the 2032/33 fiscal year, a year earlier than initially forecasted in the MTBPS.

Other fiscal ratios have also improved, with the primary surplus now at 1.6% of GDP for 2026/27, compared to 1.7% in the MTBPS, and expected to rise to 2.8% in 2029/30 from an earlier estimate of 2.9%. The main budget deficit for 2026/27 is now at 3.5% of GDP, compared to a previous 3.7%.

The National Treasury emphasized that these revised ratios do not reflect changes to the government’s revenue, spending, or debt projections. Further details, including updated economic forecasts and fiscal projections, will be provided in the 2027 Budget.

Duncan Pieterse, National Treasury Director-General, stated that the updated calculations confirm the government's progress in achieving its fiscal targets, with improved fiscal metrics leading to lower borrowing costs and a stronger foundation for investment and growth.

The benchmarking exercise employed improved data and methods to better incorporate changes in the economy's structure into GDP calculations, ensuring a more accurate reflection of its size and composition. Historically, such exercises by Stats SA have increased the estimated size of the economy but have seldom impacted growth rates significantly.

Overall, the revised GDP figures have led to an average improvement of 0.2 percentage points in the consolidated budget deficit for the current fiscal year and over the medium term, while the main budget primary surplus has been revised down by an average of 0.1 percentage points over the medium term.