Day: April 17, 2022

WASHINGTON— Economies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are expected to grow by 5.2% in 2022, the fastest rate since 2016, on the back of oil-price windfalls benefitting the region’s oil exporters. But heightened uncertainty surrounds this forecast due to the war in Ukraine and ongoing threats from COVID-19 variants.

Titled "Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty", the World Bank’s latest economic update forecasts an uneven recovery as regional averages mask broad differences. Oil-producers will benefit from higher oil prices and vaccination rates as fragile countries lag. But tighter global monetary policy, the unpredictability of the course of the pandemic, ongoing supply chain disruptions and food price hikes raise inflation risks for the entire region.

"The harsh reality is that no one is out of the woods yet. The threat of COVID-19 variants remains and the war in Ukraine has multiplied risks, particularly for the poor who bear the brunt of the increase in food and energy prices. A good dose of realism about the region’s growth prospects during these times of uncertainty is essential," said Ferid Belhaj, World Bank Vice President for the MENA region. "Managing this wave of uncertainty is a key challenge for policymakers and the World Bank is committed to working alongside governments across the MENA region during this time of compounding risks," he added.

Currency depreciation in some countries in MENA is already adding to inflationary pressures. Economies facing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities will likely encounter more challenges as they roll over existing debt, or issue new debt amid tighter financing conditions as global central banks aim to contain inflation expectations.

Inflationary pressures created by the pandemic have been exacerbated by the Ukraine war. Countries in the MENA region rely heavily on food imports, including wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The rise in food prices and the higher risk of food insecurity are likely to hurt poor families the most, because the poor tend to spend more of their household budget on food and energy than do rich households. The full extent of the consequences of the war are yet to be determined, but early signs point to a heightening of the economic difficulties already besetting MENA economies, particularly oil-importing middle-income countries.

Despite the projected growth rate of 5.2%, GDP per capita, an indicator of people’s living standards, will barely exceed pre-pandemic levels due to a generally lackluster performance in 2020-2021, the report said. In Gulf Cooperation Council countries, buoyed by the increase in oil prices, GDP per capita is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2022, but will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2023. In contrast, in 2022, GDP per capita of middle-income oil exporters is projected to grow by 3.0%, and by 2.4% for the region’s oil importers, both barely lifting living standards above pre-pandemic levels. Overall, if these forecasts materialize, 11 out of 17 economies in MENA may not recover to pre-pandemic levels by end of 2022.

Adding to pandemic-related uncertainty, only a third of the middle-income MENA countries have higher vaccination rates than their income peers. As of April 4, 2022, Gulf countries, excluding Oman which has a 57.8% vaccination rate, have an average rate of 75.7%, which is far better than their income peers. But countries like Algeria and Iraq have vaccinated around 13 to 17% of their populations and Yemen and Syria have vaccination rates in the single digits, thus leaving them more exposed to the economic and health consequences of Covid-19 in the near future.

Each MENA Economic Update chooses a special focus area and this April’s edition provides a reality check on growth forecasts over the past decade, including those provided by the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the private sector. Economic forecasts are a valuable tool for governments as they prepare for the future, especially during times of uncertainty. The authors found that growth forecasts in the MENA region over the past decade were often inaccurate and overly optimistic when compared to those of other regions. Overly optimistic forecasts can lead to economic contractions down the road. A key driver of forecast uncertainty is the availability and accessibility of quality and timely information, an area where MENA lags behind the rest of the developing world.

"In the current context of global and regional uncertainty, getting the most accurate forecasts possible becomes even more important. Lack of data and limited data openness are risky strategies. Only with better and more transparent data can forecasts, and with them planning and policy formulation, improve," said Roberta Gatti, World Bank Chief Economist for the MENA region.

Conflict economies such as Libya and Yemen have outdated GDP data, last available for 2014 and 2017 respectively. Only 10 out of the 19 MENA economies covered by the World Bank Group have monthly or quarterly information on industrial production; for the remaining nine, information is not publicly available; and none publish monthly unemployment data. The report provides guidance about how to improve national data systems.

Source: World Bank

LONDON— The British Royal Navy is taking over operational command from Border Force in the English Channel. The service will be responsible for intercepting boats carrying migrants. The decision follows the understanding with Rwanda to have migrants arriving in boats to UK, sent to the African country.

The Prime Minister said the new offshore asylum approach is intended to end the “barbaric trade in human misery conducted by the people smugglers in the Channel” and said crossings could reach 1,000 a day in a few weeks.

“These vile people smugglers are abusing the vulnerable and turning the Channel into a watery graveyard,” Boris Johnson said.

“To identify, intercept and investigate these boats, from today the Royal Navy will take over operational command from Border Force in the Channel, taking primacy for our operational response at sea in line with many of our international partners with the aim that no boat makes it to the UK undetected.”

Johnson added that giving the Royal Navy operational command in the English Channel will send a clear message to criminal gangs.

“This will be supported by £50m of new funding for new boats, aerial surveillance and military personnel,” the Prime Minister added.

“In addition to the existing task force of patrol vessels, helicopters, search and rescue aircraft, drones and remotely piloted aircraft, this will send a clear message to those piloting the boats: if you risk other people’s lives in the Channel, you risk spending your own life in prison.

”People who do make it to the UK will be taken not to hotels at vast public expense, rather they will be housed in accommodation centers like those in Greece with the first of these to open shortly.“

The decision to task the military with policing the Channel has received some criticism in the past. In January, the Defense Select Committee was told there was ”no spare capacity“ to deploy naval vessels to police the English Channel, while the same month the committee’s chair, Tobias Ellwood, told Forces News his belief that: ”That’s not what our Navy is for.“

A Defense Select Committee report in March also called for a ”clear end point” to the British military’s role in tackling the number of migrant crossings in the Channel.

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK

RIYADH— OPEC oil production increased by just 57,000 barrels per day (bpd) in March from February, as African members’ struggles to pump more crude partially offset increases at the core OPEC members of the Middle East.

All 13 OPEC members—including Libya, Iran, and Venezuela which are exempted from the OPEC+ deal—pumped 28.56 million bpd in March, up by just 57,000 bpd from February, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, (MOMR) published this week.

Crude oil output increased mainly in the three Arab Gulf producers—Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE, while production in Libya, Nigeria, and Congo declined.

Saudi Arabia raised its production by 54,000 bpd to 10.262 million bpd in March, according to OPEC’s secondary sources. That compares with 10,331 million bpd quota for Saudi Arabia for March per the OPEC+ deal. The Saudis self-reported March crude oil production of 10.300 million bpd, OPEC said in the report.

UAE raised its production by 23,000 bpd to 2.983 million bpd, per OPEC’s secondary sources, compared to a quota of 2.976 million bpd. Kuwait’s production rose by 25,000 bpd to 2.639 million bpd, in line with its quota under the OPEC+ deal.

While the Arab Gulf producers more or less complied with their quotas, African producers such as Nigeria, Congo, and Angola saw their production drop, with Nigeria’s output down by 24,000 bpd to 1.354 million bpd. That’s a massive underachievement compared to Nigeria’s quota of 1.718 million bpd.

In terms of expected supply from non-OPEC producers this year, OPEC revised down its supply growth estimate by 300,000 bpd to growth of 2.7 million bpd, mostly due to a downward revision of Russia’s liquids production—down by 530,000 bpd. OPEC, however, raised its estimate for U.S. crude oil production growth by 260,000 bpd.

“While most US oil companies continue to focus on paying off debts and returning capital to shareholders, increasing drilling and completion trends could translate into higher production levels in the coming months,” the cartel said. “Therefore, the US liquids supply growth forecast for 2022 is revised up by 0.26 mb/d to 1.29 mb/d.”

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK

DURBAN (South Africa)— South Africa’s flood-ravaged east was hit by more rain Saturday after the deadliest storm to strike the country in living memory killed nearly 400 people and left tens of thousands homeless.

Floodwaters engulfed parts of the southeastern coastal city of Durban this week ripping apart roads, destroying hospitals and sweeping away homes and those trapped inside.

Emergency services in the southeastern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, where Durban is located off the Indian Ocean coast, were on high alert.

Recovery operations and humanitarian relief were underway in the city of 3.5 million which would normally have been teeming with Easter holidaymakers this weekend.

The death toll rose Saturday to 398 while 27 people were reported still missing, the government said in a statement. More than 40,000 have been rendered homeless.

“Sadly there are still bodies being recovered from homesteads, especially from the rural areas,” Shawn Herbst of the first responder company Netcare 911 said.

“There is still damage taking place, especially with the rain we are experiencing today.”

This weekend’s rainfall will not be “as hectic as it was in the past few days”, according to Puseletso Mofokeng, South Africa Weather Service forecaster.

With soil being over-saturated with water, more flooding is expected.

Despite the light rains falling on the city, a local premiership league football match between AmaZulu and Maritzburg United went ahead at the 2010 World Cup Moses Mabhida Stadium Saturday.

But a Currie Cup rugby match between local team, the Sharks, and the Bulls from Pretoria, scheduled for the city was cancelled Friday as a mark of respect for victims of the flooding.

Troops, police and volunteers are leading the search and rescue operation.

Residents of Marianhill, desperate for news of their missing relatives were relieved at the sight of rescuers, but the dread of fresh rains lingered.

“We have the rescue team finally… reach here, but seeing the rain that is coming back, they are going to be disrupted,” said Dumisani Kanyile after recovery teams failed to find any of the 10 members of one family missing in the Durban district.

Mesuli Shandu, 20, a close relative of the family, was still in a state of disbelief “that a massive number of people died in one day, including babies”.

“When I came, I thought it was a dream, maybe someone would pinch me and say it was a dream, just wake up.” But “I see all the rescuers and the dogs searching for their bodies”.

Six days after the floods first struck, hope of finding survivors is fading and Durban emergency medical services spokesman Robert McKenzie said the response was now focused on recovery and humanitarian relief.

“We have moved from the emergency phase to the recovery phase of the disaster, more to humanitarian relief effort and restoration of services,” he said.

Survivors are still desperately looking for missing relatives.

The floods have damaged more than 13,500 houses and completely destroyed around 4,000, leaving 58 hospitals and clinics “severely affected”, said government.

Clean water is scarce and authorities have promised to deploy water tankers. Residents were using shopping trolleys to carry water buckets.

The government has announced one billion rand in emergency relief funding.

Confederation of African Football (CAF) chief billionaire Patrice Motsepe donated what he called a “humble contribution” of 30 million rand.

“Our people are suffering,” said Motsepe at a hall sheltering displaced people.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has postponed a working visit to Saudi Arabia that was scheduled to begin Tuesday, his office said.

“The loss of nearly 400 lives and thousands of homes, as well as the economic impact and the destruction of infrastructure, calls for all hands on deck,” said Ramaphosa.

South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised country, is still struggling to recover from the two-year-old Covid pandemic and deadly riots last year that killed more than 350 people, mostly in the now flood-struck southeastern region.

Source: NAM NEWS NETWORK

A joint military force from Nigeria, Niger and Cameroon said Sunday it had killed more than 100 Islamist insurgents, including 10 commanders, in the past few weeks, as it intensifies a ground and air offensive in the Lake Chad region.

Boko Haram fighters and its splinter Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) group have for more than a decade battled the Nigerian army in a conflict that has sucked in neighboring states.

Multinational Joint Task Force spokesman Colonel Muhammad Dole said troops had ventured deep into enclaves controlled by insurgents in the Lake Chad area and recovered several weapons, food and illicit drugs.

"Within the period of this operation, well over a hundred terrorists have been neutralized, including over 10 top commanders ... following intelligence-driven lethal airstrikes in the Lake Chad islands by the combined air task forces," Dole said.

Dole did not give the period covered by the operation or number of troops killed but said 18 soldiers were injured by improvised explosive devices planted by retreating insurgents.

The Islamist insurgency is concentrated in the northeast of Nigeria and has left thousands dead while driving millions from their homes into camps for internally displaced persons.

Nigeria received a boost after the United States last week approved a nearly $1 billion weapons sale. U.S. lawmakers had put a hold on the deal over concerns about possible human rights abuses by the Nigerian government.

Boko Haram has been on the back foot since the death of its leader, Abubakar Shekau, last year in May during a battle with rival ISWAP. Nigeria says thousands of Boko Haram fighters and their families have surrendered since last year.

Source: Voice of America